"International Migrations: a Global Issue"

Catherine de Wenden, CNRS research director: CERI - Sciences Po.

-Environmentally-displaced persons correspond to...

We do not talk about climate refugees, a term previously used,

because the High Commissioner for Refugees considered

that these people, since they are not persecuted,

could not fall within the scope of the Geneva Convention for refugees

even if they are forced migrants, like refugees,

but they are not persecuted. Indeed, individual persecution

is one of the main criteria in order to acknowledge the refugee status.

Moreover, environmental refugees are often collective migrants.

Thus, they cannot individually state the potential persecution

they might suffer from. So they do not have a status

in a context where figures are constantly rising.

Today, there are 42 million environmentally-displaced persons

according to the United Nations. Among these 42 million,

17 millions are international migrants.

The others are internal migrants in their own country.

This explains why the will to find a status is so weak

since most of them are people who seek refuge in their own country.

As opposed to international migrants and refugees, most of the time

the poorest stay at home because they do not have the opportunity,

the knowledge or the networks that would allow them to cross borders.

These environmentally-displaced persons are linked

to a series of crises, some of them being as old as the world itself.

Remember that Noah's Arch can be considered as the result

of a major environmental crisis, the Flood.

And Voltaire, in 1756 for example, talked about the Lisbon earthquake

which had an impact down to Morocco

and which was a major environmental crisis

since the city of Lisbon and its population almost disappeared

after this catastrophe.

When Steinbeck talks about the "Grapes of Wrath"

and the Dust Bowl in the USA, these dust curls

that chased away American farmers from East to West,

it is also an environmental catastrophe.

The difference compared to nowadays is that these massive exodus

were not categorized as environmentally-displaced persons.

They simply were catastrophes. A certain number of catastrophes

that still happen are also not linked to global warming.

Cyclones, tornadoes, volcanic eruptions, earthquakes

have always existed unfortunately

and always created environmentally-displaced persons.

Other environmentally-displaced persons

are mainly linked to climate change. Desertification, for example,

which keeps advancing in all the dry regions of the planet.

As well as rising water, particularly in lowland zones,

flat islands, for example, like in the Pacific or Caribbean areas.

But also in the straits of major rivers like in Bangladesh

which is the number one country

threatened by environmental catastrophes

because the Himalaya waters flow into the Ganges and the Brahmaputra

which create the strait where the capital is located

and where the poorest live in areas subject to flooding.

So there are also other causes leading to environmentally-displaced persons

such as the icecaps melting which would lead the people living there

to move further South, especially in the Northern part of the planet.

All these catastrophes create millions of environmentally-displaced persons.

Climate experts predicted that there could be

between 150 and 200 million environmentally-displaced persons

by the end of this century,

that is to say as much as international migrants today.

These people do not have a status because, as I already mentioned,

they are not persecuted by their state.

Unless they can prove that their state

does not act to restrain the catastrophe.

This would be the only persecution case they could invoke

in order to obtain the refugee status of the Geneva Convention.

Since many of them are internal migrants

and since it is often a situation that is limited to a regional scale,

a working group, called the Nansen Initiative,

gathered in Geneva in 2011 and went towards a resolution

for different regional statuses for environmentally-displaced persons

instead of giving them a global status.

So, today, we are heading this way even if, for the moment, statutorily,

these persons are not acknowledged if they fled catastrophes

and tried to seek refuge somewhere else.

They are illegal migrants fleeing a natural catastrophe.

This is the answer we can give today regarding their lack of status.

These environmentally-displaced persons

are mainly internal migrations, as we saw it,

but also South-South migrations.

Catastrophes linked, among other things, to climate changes

mainly have an impact on the Southern part of the planet.

Those who are

in this environmentally-displaced person category are migrations

that go from South to South. Thus, there is a risk classification

depending on the country. Some states will even disappear.

The Tuvalu islands, for example, in the Pacific Ocean

near the Fiji islands, are bound to disappear just like the Maldives

if the sea level keeps on rising since they will be engulfed.

But it is not only an issue of islands disappearing.

Populations will need to seek refuge in neighbor countries.

Some of them have already started negotiating hosting,

in New Zealand for example, for inhabitants of these islands.

There are not so many of them in terms of population.

Others even consider going somewhere else.

The disappearance of the Maldives is programmed.

In order to highlight the crisis they are facing,

a Maldives Ministerial Council took place under water

in order to illustrate their fate and the remarkable lack of concern

of the world to try and find a solution to their issue.

In Europe, there are only a few small islands.

The Halligen islands, located between Germany and Denmark,

are threatened. It is a piece of Europe

which detached from the continent during the Middle Ages.

Its elevation is at sea level, so it is highly threatened.

But for the moment, they are dependent on Germany which greatly helps them

to try and protect them with dykes.

So the threat is rather limited in terms of population.

Regarding those who fear Europe might be invaded

by environmentally-displaced persons, many answer that, after all,

it is mainly South-South migrations.

Thus, they will not necessarily go to Europe.

They are often poor people and will not necessarily travel too far.

And they are mainly internal migrations.

So, for the moment, the Sahel area, where desertification is progressing,

and which is not very populated since it is an arid region,

is not likely to create any kind of environmental flood towards Europe.

Knowing that in sub-Saharan Africa migrants mainly leave humid areas.

As for Bangladesh, the number one country in this crisis,

India has created a 4 000-kilometer border

to protect itself against the potential arrival

of environmental catastrophe victims. There has already been,

on several occasions, mudflows and floods that have started

this environmental crisis

in the Ganges Delta, around the capital.

ENVIRONMENTALLY DISPLACED PERSONS: MIGRANTS OF TOMORROW?

International migrations: a global issue

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