And the Lehman Brothers report kind of
breaks out some different scenarios for what could happen to housing prices.
So this is the top half of the exhibit that you're now looking at.
On the left-hand side, you kinda have their cases.
So, the top case is an aggressive case, and
that scenario is an 11% rise in housing prices, over
the life of some pool of mortgage-backed securities that were put together.
Their second case would be an 8% rise over the course of those loans,
and then what they call their base case, which is that housing
price appreciation actually slows to 5% by the end of 2005.
Then a pessimistic case and their pessimistic case is 0%.
So already the language that their using suggests that perhaps they're not well
calibrated to history, just in terms of percentages.
And we'll see that, too, because the pessimistic case
would really be the reality for many of the previous decades.
And then what they call a meltdown case, 5% drop per year for
the next three years, and then an increase in 5% per year after that.