通过探究客户决策根源，学习市场营销基础知识。主要课题包括品牌塑造战略（例如，品牌定位、品牌传播）、客户中心化市场营销战略，以及新市场开拓（例如，渠道战略、市场营销规划）。成功完成本课程后，您可以运用所学技能处理现实商务挑战，这也是沃顿商学院商务基础专项课程的组成部分。
(4) “长尾”第一部分 (10:58)
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From the course by University of Pennsylvania
市场营销概论 (中文版）
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From the lesson
第 3 周）市场进入战略：线上/线下互动；如何找出领先用户并增强影响力和传染效应
David Bell 教授将从本周起为我们授课，我们也将开始学习第三个模块的内容！我们将转向“走向市场策略”这个重要主题。“走向市场”策略有着前所未有的多样化的选择，因为公司有机会通过多种平台吸引线上和线下的客户。Bell 教授曾经参与了几家激动人心创业公司的相关工作，他将以这些经验为例来讲解本周的教学内容。
Meet the Instructors
Barbara E. KahnProfessor of Marketing and Director, Jay H. Baker Retailing Center
The Wharton School
Peter FaderProfessor of Marketing and Co-Director of the Wharton Customer Analytics Initiative
The Wharton School
David BellXinmei Zhang and Yongge Dai Professor, Professor of Marketing
Marketing
[MUSIC]
So, hi again everyone.
Today, I'm very excited to present to you a concept that I
think is really, really important for
understanding how online and offline come together.
it's called the long tail.
The idea was developed by a fellow called Chris Anderson
who actually wrote a book elaborating on the entire concept.
I'm going to give you the key ideas from Chris's book.
But this is something that you really want to keep in mind as you
think about how the Internet is changing
our behavior with respect to both selling and
also shopping and buying.
So just to get us going, I'll first of all show you how we're going to proceed.
We're going to start out with a little bit of background on
what things used to be like before the internet came along.
Then I'm going to present The Long Tail Concept
and a little bit of economics on it.
Then I'm going to to introduce the research study by some colleagues at MIT,
where they looked at Omni Channel and how the Long Tail played out there.
And then finally a piece of my own research on something
I'm calling, the spatial long tail.
I'll become clear what that is as we go through our session.
So, let's start at the start by looking at a picture of the so-called long tail.
It'll be coming up a lot, so if you don't get the full thing right now, that's fine.
I just want to give a brief overview.
So the long tail has two axes, a y axis and an x axis.
The Y axis is a measure of popularity which in
many cases is going to be the sales of the product.
It could also
be the number of downloads, the number of
people who follow somebody on Twitter, for example.
Just some measure of popularity.
On the X axis, all the products are lined up from the
most popular product all the way down to the least popular product.
So let's take a common example that I think we could all relate to.
Let's think about all the books that are available for sale on amazon.com.
And let's imagine there are perhaps five million books for sale.
I'm not sure what the number is, but I know it's a
huge number, and certainly way more than the number of
books that could ever be sold in a physical retailer.
And let's imagine that the top-selling book
is Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone.
People seem to like Harry Potter.
So let's imagine that's the top book.
And way, way down the tail, at rank
3,900,000, there could be some other book that's
a much more obscure book about, you know,
gardening in Philadelphia or something of that sort.
So the idea of the long tail is, that the products that
are way out in the orange area to the right are so unpopular.
Or so niche, and so slow to turn over that it just wouldn't make
sense for you and I to have a physical book store to sell them.
That's the idea.
The products on the head, on the other hand,
those are the ones that we would want to
stock if we had a physical store, because those
are the ones that are going to sell the most.
That's the distinction between the head and the tail and
the key idea of the long tail is that the internet makes it
possible for us to have access to all of those products in the tail.
And in fact, depending on what kind of
seller you are, the total sales and profits
coming from all those products in the tail, can really add up to be quite a lot.
Ok, so that's a basic description.
Let's continue on with a little bit of background and a little bit of history.
So historically, pre-internet at least, we all lived in a world of so called hits.
Blockbusters,
Blockbuster movies, Blockbuster, Blockbuster music albums and so on.
And most people ended up buying using consuming the
things that were popular, and firms also were motivated to
try and produce those Blockbusters However, because of the
internet, economics of distribution have really been changed a lot.
Now it's possible to offer much, much more variety than ever before.
So, now I want to address the long tail
from two different perspectives, both the supply side and the demand side.
Both of these perspectives are important when we think about markets.
So on the supply side, because of the
Internet, it's now possible for sellers to just
offer a lot more variety, whether it's variety
of beer, diapers, flowers, movies, songs, you name it.
It's possible to offer a lot more variety because
the economics of distributing those products has changed dramatically.
Secondly, there's also a demand side explanation for the long
tail or a demand side story that goes along with it.
So in the old days, how would I
find out about sort of unusual products and services?
Perhaps through friends and family, or people that I meet, acquaintances.
But, essentially I may be locked out of understanding those products
or coming across them because they wouldn't be carried by the retailers.
Remember, the retailers or the stores would only really carry the products that
were in the head, so to find products in the tail was very, very difficult.
So, one implication of this is our tastes now are
becoming more varied because, simply, we have access to more demand.
Acc-, sorry, access to more variety of product than we ever had before.
So now let me compare and contrast the economics of the long tail, that we're
going to look at in a second, with the
old economic ideas that are still pretty useful,
but have been around for a long point in time.
A long period of time.
So, there was a fellow called Pareto who noticed
many, many years ago, back in 1897, that about 80%
of all the wealth of the residents and citizens of
the UK was owned by only 20% of the people.
more recently we've often discovered that 80% of the profits that we make
are based on only 20% of the products that we sell, or 20% of
the customers that we have. Hence the common 80/20 rule.
Now the long tail kind of changes that rule
a bit because its just its not necessarily 80/20 anymore
we can have a huge tail of products a faster
number that actually account for individually very very little profit.
But collectively account for a lot.
So let's continue on and see how that works out.
Another law thats kind of an interesting one is named after a fellow
called George Zipf, Zipf's Law.
And what he found is if you take a
manuscript or a book the word that's the second
most popular word in the book, or most used
word is about half as frequent as the most popular.
And the third most commonly used word is about
one third of the occurrences as the most popular one.
This law also applies to other things like the
distribution of populations and so forth within a country.
So here's
two key principles on the slide that really underly this idea of the
long tail, and also come up again when we talk about preference isolation.
So let's start with the first one, what I put
on this slide is this idea of tyranny of locality.
What does that mean?
That means that the things that are available to you locally
are dictated by whatever the local sellers decide to offer you.
And they may be different from your own taste, so
now what I like to do before we get into
more detail on the long tail, is to ask you all out there two questions.
One related to supply and the other related to demand.
So I'd like you to think about a product that you use or a product that
you like, that you can't find available locally,
because it's just not popular among your local neighbors.
So imagine you like to sunbathe and go to the beach, and you like to use a
special kind of lotion that you can't find,
because most of the pharmacies in the area only
offer very high SPF products, and that's not what you want.
So try and think of a product that you can't find locally.
That's going to be a demand-side explanation for the long tail, where
all of that variety is going to be available on the internet.
Secondly, I'd like you to think about if you were a seller on the supply side, and
you had a sort of unusual product and
where were you, would want to sell that product.
So the product that was mentioned in Chris's book and I'll just
mention here again There's actually a very good
movie called Once Upon a Time in India.
Now, if I wanted to show that on physical screens in the United
States, I'd probably have to go to large cities like Los Angeles and
New York where there's a high
concentration, perhaps of people from India, or
who have an affinity with Indian culture, And I would show it there.
It wouldn't have been possible for me to show it to the
two and three people all over the country in different markets who actually
would be interested.
But now through the internet, what I can do, is
I could make it available for download, and with two
people watching here, and three here, four here and five
here, that would add up to a lot of demand.
So hopefully you can see through those two examples, and the one
that you've thought about, that the long tail addresses both demand for product.
You can get that variety now.
And also it affects the way product is being supplied.
So let's go back to our diagram.
Just going to to make two more points
on the diagram.
And there are two questions on the bottom that I'm going to lead us through.
So here is the head in the red, and the tail in the orange again.
And the first question I'd like to pose to you and then I'll release my answer for
it, is how satisfied would you be with a random product that you drew from either
the head or the tail? Might be one of those fantastic
movies from that great little country that's
south of the equator, what's it called?
Not Australia, the other one, the one to the,
to the right, New Zealand, called Lord of the Rings.
So, that's a pretty popular movie, and if you just
randomly sort, odds are you'd be quite happy with it.
You might like it eight out of ten.
If on the other hand I sampled a really obscure, odd movie.
That was not that popular, a niche movie from the tail.
And I showed you that, odds are you probably wouldn't like
it very much.
So in general, as you go from he head
to the tail, the average level of satisfaction declines.
But that's just the average, as you've learned from Pete,
[INAUDIBLE]
and variance is also very important.
Now, there may however be a product in the
tail that most other people don't like, but for you
is a ten out of ten movie, or song, or
book, or whatever it is else that you're looking for.
So if there were an efficient way for you to filter and get
into the long tail, you could find stuff that you really, really love.
That's the idea.
So on average as you go from the left to the right Your
satisfaction would be coming down if you were
shown a random product, but your satisfaction could be
really high if you were able to go into
the right and find the things you exactly wanted.
So let's continue with those ideas.
What are the main characteristics of the long tail that we have here on the slide?
So, first of all the ratio of niche
product sales to big hit sales is changing.
Now there's more demand coming from all of those niche products.
Being added together.
The distribution
efficiency is also changing.
You can now get access particularily to
content-type products on tablets, and also mobile phones.
In terms of being able to find your
way into the long tail, that's where consumer reviews
and so on come in, and we're going to
be talking more about reviews in a subsequent discussion.
So, the long tail, as I put here
on the slide, is just culturally unfiltered by scarcity.
So in the old days,
the owner of the store, again our friend
Chris who's doing the video here, the owner
of the store he would decide what as going to be offered on a local market.
He would decide what movies he would show on the screen.
He would decide what beer was going to be available in his liquor store.
But now, through the long tail, all of those things
can be made available through the Internet.
[MUSIC]
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