**About this course: **Learn how probability, math, and statistics can be used to help baseball, football and basketball teams improve, player and lineup selection as well as in game strategy.

**About this course: **Learn how probability, math, and statistics can be used to help baseball, football and basketball teams improve, player and lineup selection as well as in game strategy.

**Taught by:**Professor Wayne Winston, Visiting Professor

Level | Beginner |

Language | English |

How To Pass | Pass all graded assignments to complete the course. |

User Ratings |

Syllabus

WEEK 1

Before you start...

1 video, 1 reading

**Video:**All you will learn**Lecture:**Suggested Textbooks (Not Required)

Module 1

You will learn how to predict a team’s won loss record from the number of runs, points, or goals scored by a team and its opponents. Then we will introduce you to multiple regression and show how multiple regression is used to evaluate baseball hitters. Excel data tables, VLOOKUP, MATCH, and INDEX functions will be discussed.

11 videos, 22 readings

**Lecture:**Download Excel Files (Important!)**Video:**1.1 Introduction**Lecture:**Excel Files**Lecture:**Recommended reading**Video:**1.2 Pythagorean Theorem**Lecture:**Excel file**Lecture:**Recommended reading**Video:**1.3 Ten runs = One win**Video:**Homework Problems 1 and 2**Lecture:**Excel file**Lecture:**Excel file**Lecture:**Recommended reading**Video:**1.4 Runs created**Lecture:**Excel Files**Lecture:**Recommended reading**Video:**1.5 Runs Created Per Game**Lecture:**Homework Problem 3**Lecture:**Excel Files**Lecture:**Recommended reading**Video:**1.6 Multiple Regression 1**Lecture:**Excel Files**Lecture:**Recommended reading**Video:**1.7 Multiple Regression 2**Lecture:**Excel Files**Lecture:**Recommended reading**Video:**1.8 Linear Weights**Lecture:**Excel Files**Lecture:**Recommended reading**Video:**1.9 On Base Percentage + Slugging Percentage**Lecture:**Excel Files**Lecture:**Recommended reading**Video:**1.10 Barry Bonds Runs per Game**Lecture:**Homework Problems 4

WEEK 2

Module 2

You will concentrate on learning important Excel tools including Range Names, Tables, Conditional Formatting, PivotTables, and the family of COUNTIFS, SUMIFS, and AVERAGEIFS functions. You will concentrate on learning important Excel tools including Range Names, Tables, Conditional Formatting, PivotTables, and the family of COUNTIFS, SUMIFS, and AVERAGEIFS functions.

10 videos, 23 readings

**Lecture:**Download Excel Files (Important!)**Lecture:**Excel Files**Lecture:**Recommended Reading**Video:**2.1 Excel Range Names**Lecture:**Excel Files**Lecture:**Recommended Reading**Video:**2.2 Excel Tables**Lecture:**Excel Files**Lecture:**Recommended Reading**Video:**2.3 Conditional Formatting: Top Bottom Rules**Lecture:**Excel Files**Lecture:**Recommended Reading**Video:**2.4 Conditional Formatting: Data Bars**Lecture:**Excel Files**Lecture:**Recommended Reading**Video:**2.5 Conditional Formatting: The Formula Option**Lecture:**Excel Files**Lecture:**Recommended Reading**Video:**2.6 COUNTIF and COUNTIFS functions**Lecture:**Excel Files**Lecture:**Recommended Reading**Video:**2.7 SUMIF and SUMIFS Functions**Lecture:**Excel Files**Lecture:**Recommended Reading**Video:**2.8 AVERAGEIF and AVERAGEIFS Functions**Lecture:**Homework Problem 5**Lecture:**Excel Files**Lecture:**Recommended Reading**Video:**2.9 PivotTables I**Lecture:**Excel Files**Lecture:**Recommended Reading**Video:**2.10 PivotTables II**Lecture:**Homework Problem 6

WEEK 3

Module 3

You will learn how Monte Carlo simulation works and how it can be used to evaluate a baseball team’s offense and the famous DEFLATEGATE controversy.

6 videos, 10 readings

**Lecture:**Download Excel Files (Important!)**Lecture:**Excel Files**Lecture:**Recommended Reading**Video:**3.1 Monte Carlo Simulation I**Lecture:**Excel Files**Video:**3.2 Monte Carlo Simulation Part II**Lecture:**Excel Files**Video:**3.3 Monte Carlo Simulation Part III**Lecture:**Excel Files**Video:**3.4 Baseball Monte Carlo simulation**Lecture:**Excel Files**Lecture:**Recommended Reading**Video:**3.5 Resampling**Lecture:**Excel Files**Video:**3.6 Deflategate**Lecture:**Homework Problem 8

WEEK 4

Module 4

You will learn how to evaluate baseball fielding, baseball pitchers, and evaluate in game baseball decision-making. The math behind WAR (Wins above Replacement) and Park Factors will also be discussed. Modern developments such as infield shifts and pitch framing will also be discussed.

13 videos, 27 readings

**Lecture:**Download Excel Files (Important!)**Lecture:**Excel Files**Lecture:**Recommended Reading**Video:**4.1 Bunting and Expected Runs**Lecture:**Excel Files**Lecture:**Recommended reading**Video:**4.2 Base Stealing**Lecture:**Homework Problem 9**Lecture:**Excel Files**Lecture:**Recommended Reading**Video:**4.3 Range Factor**Lecture:**Excel Files**Video:**4.4 UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) and Fielding**Lecture:**Homework Problem 10**Lecture:**Homework Problem 11**Video:**4.5 Introduction to Fan Graphs**Lecture:**Excel Files**Lecture:**Recommended Reading**Video:**4.6 DIPS (Defense Independent Pitching Statistics)**Lecture:**Homework Problem 12**Lecture:**Excel Files**Lecture:**Recommended Reading**Video:**4.7 Win Probability Added**Lecture:**Excel Files**Lecture:**Recommended Reading**Video:**4.8 Runs above Average**Lecture:**Excel Files**Lecture:**Recommended Reading**Video:**4.9 WAR (Wins above Replacement)**Lecture:**Homework Problem 13**Lecture:**Excel Files**Video:**4.10 What Makes your Team Win?**Lecture:**Excel Files**Video:**4.11 Defensive Shifts**Lecture:**Excel Files**Video:**4.12 Catcher Framing**Lecture:**Excel Files**Lecture:**Recommended Reading**Video:**4.13 Park Factors**Lecture:**Homework Problem 14

WEEK 5

Module 5

You will learn basic concepts involving random variables (specifically the normal random variable, expected value, variance and standard deviation.) You will learn how regression can be used to analyze what makes NFL teams win and decode the NFL QB rating system. You will also learn that momentum and the “hot hand” is mostly a myth. Finally, you will use Excel text functions and the concept of Expected Points per play to analyze the effectiveness of a football team’s play calling.

11 videos, 23 readings

**Lecture:**Download Excel Files (Important!)**Lecture:**Excel Files**Lecture:**Recommended Reading**Video:**5.1 Random Variables**Lecture:**Excel Files**Lecture:**Recommended Reading**Video:**5.2 The Normal Random Variable**Lecture:**Excel Files**Lecture:**Recommended Reading**Video:**5.3 Streakiness**Lecture:**Excel Files**Video:**5.4 What makes NFL teams win?**Lecture:**Homework Problem 15**Lecture:**Excel Files**Video:**5.5 Deconstructing the NFL QB rating**Lecture:**Homework Problem 16**Lecture:**Excel Files**Lecture:**Recommended Reading**Video:**5.6 Football States and Values**Lecture:**Excel Files**Lecture:**Recommended Reading**Video:**5.7 Football Decision Making**Lecture:**Homework Problem 17**Lecture:**Excel Files**Video:**5.8 The Belichick Decision**Lecture:**Homework Problem 18**Lecture:**Excel Files**Lecture:**Recommended Reading**Video:**5.9 Text functions and Analyzing NFL plays**Lecture:**Excel Files**Video:**5.10 Texans 1st and 10 Play Selection**Lecture:**Excel Files**Video:**5.11 STDEVIF and Too Many Field Goal Attempts**Lecture:**Homework Problem 19

WEEK 6

Module 6

You will learn how two-person zero sum game theory sheds light on football play selection and soccer penalty kick strategies. Our discussion of basketball begins with an analysis of NBA shooting, box score based player metrics, and the Four Factor concept which explains what makes basketball teams win.

7 videos, 16 readings

**Lecture:**Download Excel Files (Important!)**Lecture:**Excel Files**Lecture:**Recommended Reading**Video:**6.1 Game Theory Part I**Lecture:**Excel Files**Video:**6.2 Game Theory Part II**Lecture:**Homework Problem 20**Lecture:**Excel Files**Video:**6.3 Basketball Shot Selection**Lecture:**Excel Files**Lecture:**Recommended Reading**Video:**6.4 Effective Field Goal Percentage (EFG)**Lecture:**Homework Problem 21**Lecture:**Excel Files**Video:**6.5 Hollinger Team Metrics**Lecture:**Excel Files**Lecture:**Recommended Reading**Video:**6.6 Four Factors**Lecture:**Homework Problem 22**Lecture:**Excel Files**Lecture:**Recommended Reading**Video:**6.7 Basketball Box Score Models**Lecture:**Homework Problem 23

WEEK 7

Module 7

You will learn about advanced basketball concepts such as Adjusted plus minus, ESPN’s RPM, SportVu data, and NBA in game decision-making.

8 videos, 13 readings

**Lecture:**Download Excel Files (Important!)**Lecture:**Excel Files**Video:**7.1 Extracting Lineup data and Computing raw + -**Lecture:**Excel Files**Video:**7.2 Computing Pairs Lineup Statistics**Lecture:**Excel Files**Video:**7.3 Adjusted + -**Lecture:**Homework Problem 24**Lecture:**Excel Files**Video:**7.4 ESPM RPM (Real Plus Minus)**Lecture:**Homework Problem 25**Lecture:**Excel Files**Video:**7.5 How Analytics Helped the Mavs beat the Heat**Lecture:**Excel Files**Video:**7.6 SportsVu data**Lecture:**Homework Problem 26**Lecture:**Excel Files**Video:**7.7 In Game Basketball Decision-Making**Lecture:**Excel Files**Video:**7.8 Hack a Jordan (or Dwight)**Lecture:**Homework Problem 27

WEEK 8

Module 8

You will learn how to use game results to rate sports teams and set point spreads. Simulation of the NCAA basketball tournament will aid you in filling out your 2016 bracket. Final 4 is in Houston!

7 videos, 18 readings

**Lecture:**Download Excel Files (Important!)**Lecture:**Excel Files**Lecture:**Recommended Reading**Video:**8.1 Rating NFL teams**Lecture:**Homework Problem 28**Lecture:**Excel Files**Lecture:**Recommended Reading**Video:**8.2 Computing Strength of Schedule**Lecture:**Homework Problem 29**Lecture:**Excel Files**Lecture:**Recommended Reading**Video:**8.3 Rating NFL Offenses and Defenses**Lecture:**Homework Problem 30**Lecture:**Excel Files**Lecture:**Recommended Reading**Video:**8.4 Multiplicative Rating Models for Soccer**Lecture:**Homework Problem 31**Lecture:**Excel Files**Video:**8.5 Regularization**Lecture:**Excel Files**Lecture:**Recommended Reading**Video:**8.6 Simulating the NCAA Tournament**Lecture:**Excel Files**Video:**8.7 NCAA Props Bets**Lecture:**Homework Problem 32

WEEK 9

Module 9

You will learn how to rate NASCAR drivers and get an introduction to sports betting concepts such as the Money line, Props Bets, and evaluation of gambling betting systems.

10 videos, 19 readings

**Lecture:**Download Excel Files (Important!)**Lecture:**Excel Files**Lecture:**Recommended Reading**Video:**9.1 Method of Maximum Likelihood**Lecture:**Excel Files**Lecture:**Recommended Reading**Video:**9.2 Rating Teams Based on Wins and Losses**Lecture:**Homework Problem 33**Lecture:**Excel Files**Video:**9.3 Simulating the NFL Playoffs**Lecture:**Excel Files**Video:**9.4 Rating NASCAR Drivers**Lecture:**Excel Files**Video:**9.5 How Good are NFL Point Spreads**Lecture:**Excel Files**Video:**9.6 Relating the Money Line to Point Spreads**Lecture:**Recommended Reading**Lecture:**Homework Problem 34**Lecture:**Excel Files**Video:**9.7 How Can you tell if a Betting System is Successful?**Lecture:**Homework Problem 35**Lecture:**Excel Files**Lecture:**Recommended Reading**Video:**9.8 Props Bets I**Lecture:**Excel Files**Video:**9.9 Props Bet II**Lecture:**Excel Files**Video:**9.10 Props Bet III**Lecture:**Homework Problem 36

WEEK 10

Module 10

You will learn how Kelly Growth can optimize your sports betting, how regression to the mean explains the SI cover jinx and how to optimize a daily fantasy sports lineup. We close with a discussion of golf analytics.

7 videos, 14 readings

**Lecture:**Download Excel Files (Important!)**Lecture:**Excel Files**Lecture:**Recommended Reading**Video:**10.1 Kelly Growth Part I**Lecture:**Excel Files**Video:**10.2 Kelly Growth Part II**Lecture:**Excel Files**Video:**10.3 Kelly Growth Part III**Lecture:**Homework Problem 37**Lecture:**Excel Files**Lecture:**Recommended Reading**Video:**10.4 Regression to the Mean**Lecture:**Homework Problem 38**Lecture:**Excel Files**Video:**10.5 Daily Fantasy Sports Part I**Lecture:**Excel Files**Video:**10.6 Daily Fantasy Sports Part II**Lecture:**Homework Problem 39**Lecture:**Excel Files**Video:**10.7 Golf Analytics**Lecture:**Homework Problem 40

WEEK 11

Final Exam

Final exam has 10 questions. Please download and open Excel files before taking the exam. You will be referred to Excel files during the exam. Each question is wort 1 point. You need to answer 6 questions or more correctly to pass the exam.

1 reading

**Lecture:**Download Excel Files

FAQs

How It Works

Travail en cours

Chaque cours fonctionne comme un manuel interactif en proposant des vidéos préenregistrées, des quiz et des projets.

Aide de la part de vos pairs

Connectez-vous à des milliers d'autres étudiants et débattez sur des idées, discutez le contenu du cours et obtenez de l'aide pour en maîtriser les concepts.

Certificats

Obtenez une reconnaissance officielle pour votre travail et partagez votre réussite avec vos amis, vos collègues et vos employeurs.

Creators

University of Houston System

The University of Houston System’s four universities and six regional campuses comprise the only comprehensive higher education system serving the world’s energy capital and the Gulf Coast region. Among institutions nationwide, the UH System remains a model of diversity and a reflection of the city it serves.

Pricing

Purchase Course | |
---|---|

Access to course materials | Available |

Access to graded materials | Available |

Receive a final grade | Available |

Earn a shareable Course Certificate | Available |

Ratings and Reviews

Rated 4.5 out of 5 of 36 ratings

This is one of the very the best classes I've ever taken. It provided the tools in Excel and the methods to model various sports outcomes so that I can start creating my own models. The examples were wide ranging and interesting. I thoroughly enjoyed listening to Professor Winston and appreciated all the additional references he pointed out during the lectures. I would love to see a second course in sports analytics . I do wish this course was called "Introduction to Sports Analytics", or "Sports Analytics I" so it would be easier to find. It seems like this course should have many more reviews than it does. Also, some of the course data may need updated. Highly recommended to anyone interested in sportsbetting or fantasy sports.

SP

Great course, however very heavy emphasis on Baseball and NFL. Resultantly some of the assessment questions proved impossible given the knowledge needed about the sport.

B

Wow, this is quite the crash course in sports analytics and Excel tricks! I was familiar with most of the concepts, but enjoyed seeing how easily all of these advanced stats could be calculated, and learned some really useful Excel functionality (what-if analysis, solver). The amount of material that is covered is really impressive!

Biggest problem with this course: it doesn't turn up when you search for "sports analytics" in Coursera's search - luckily for me mooclist.com knows about it

You May Also Like

Coursera provides universal access to the world’s best education,
partnering with top universities and organizations to offer courses online.

Excellent course if you like statistics, probabilities, and how to linh sport with math. Well explained. Maybe it needs more "movement" on forums